The outcomes of the Global Stocktake at SB62: forests, oil and our future

“Now, there is nothing more to be done. It is time to implement, implement, implement,” declared Brazilian Minister Marina Silva regarding COP30. While last year’s COP in Baku became known as the “Finance COP” for the prominence of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), COP30 is centered around a different goal: implementation of all dimensions of the collective response to climate change.

Implementation spans a wide range of critical priorities, such as finalizing the indicators for Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and aligning financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development, as already outlined. Yet one of the most fundamental pillars is ensuring that the Global Stocktake (GST) does not remain merely a diagnostic tool. 

The first GST is a landmark decision that evaluates the current state of global climate action. It is the result of a multi-year, comprehensive process involving both technical and political tracks, with substantial input from a wide range of stakeholders and reviewed every five years. It confirms that the world has begun to address carbon emissions, but also highlights the urgent need to accelerate action. Without stronger measures before the next one in 2028, the world risks experiencing the severe human and economic consequences of global temperatures exceeding the global warming limit of 1.5°C.

In response to the GST’s recommendations, global attention now turns to how countries will implement mitigation efforts, especially in three politically charged areas: the transition away from fossil fuels; the large-scale deployment of transitional fuels; and ending deforestation by 2030. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Dialogue was launched as a mechanism for translating the Global Stocktake outcomes into concrete action. In Bonn, during the intermediate negotiations in the lead-up to COP30, countries are expected to engage in broad discussions on how to act upon the matter. 

These topics are highly politicized and negotiation dynamics remain gridlocked as countries manifest their positions. Some developing countries emphasize the need to prioritize the provision of finance for the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs. Developed countries, on the other hand, advocate for a mandate that encompasses all outcomes under the GST, de-emphasizing the formal obligation to provide climate finance to developing nations.

The Brazilian COP30 Presidency has made it clear: resolving the issue in Belém is a priority. But for that to happen, difficult questions must be tackled in Bonn. How will the UAE Dialogue be put into practice? Will the proposal for an annual report on the fossil fuel transition be adopted? How will countries monitor and deliver the emissions reductions needed? How will finance be mobilized to support these efforts? And if no consensus is reached now, how will it be addressed at Belém?

Controlling the climate crisis means a global transition away from fossil fuels and restoring forests at scale, these are non-negotiable imperatives. What remains, indeed, subject to negotiation is how governments will carry out these essential actions. Bonn must tell.