English VersionEXECUTIVE SUMARY
This position paper outlines Talanoa’s proposed strategic narrative for COP30: The success of COP30 is a story of resilience. In a world increasingly marked by severe climate impacts, a persistent gap in Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) ambition, and geopolitical pressures undermining cooperation, the story of COP30 must be one of resilience — of people, of purpose, and of the multilateral process itself. Talanoa frames resilience across three outcome areas – Adaptation, Mitigation and Energy Transition, and Reform – representing a coherent package that connects the lived realities of climate impacts to the structural reforms needed in the global governance system. This narrative positions COP30 as a turning point that operationalises the Global Goal on Adaptation, reaffirms the political commitment to 1.5°C, and begins the pivot from negotiation to implementation across the UN climate regime.1. INTRODUCTION: THE STORU WE PROPOSE FOR COP30
The success of COP30 should be told as a story of resilience.
At a time when climate impacts are intensifying, national contributions (NDCs) remain insufficient, and global geopolitics strains multilateralism to its limits, COP30 represents a unique opportunity to reaffirm the role of international cooperation, showing that the UN climate regime can evolve, adapt, and remain relevant.
There is today a “reality gap” between the gravity of the climate emergency and the political response to it. The success of COP30 will depend on beginning to close that gap through tangible progress across three main pillars:
- 1. Adaptation and Resilience
- 2. Mitigation and Energy Transition
- 3. Reform of the Multilateral Process
In Belém, Brazil has the opportunity to deliver a package of outcomes that demonstrates resilience and offers hope in the face of humanity’s greatest challenge. The throughline is clear: resilience of people, systems, and institutions.
For the first time in COP history, COP30 could place adaptation and the resilience needs of people at the heart of the international climate regime. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) must be operationalized, with renewed financial commitments reflecting the recognition of adaptation as fundamental to security and development.
Instead of resignation, COP30 must offer a resilient response to the NDC ambition gap. Political commitment to the goals of the Paris Agreement should be reaffirmed; opportunities to raise ambition must be highlighted; and follow-up on the Global Stocktake and the transition away from fossil fuels must be accelerated.
Finally, COP30 must demonstrate that the UN climate regime itself is resilient. A regime that is able to evolve and to remain relevant in today’s economic and geopolitical context. The conference can mark a decisive turn toward implementation, with a more coherent action agenda, renewed focus within negotiations, and clear signals toward broader reforms of the multilateral architecture.
2. A VISION OF POTENCIAL OUTCOMES
Adaptation: resilience in the face of climate impacts
The climate reality is now inescapable. Communities across the world are experiencing the direct effects of climate change, and the international regime must reconnect with this lived experience. COP30 can mark this turning point by making adaptation a political and practical priority. COP30 can culminate in a political recognition of adaptation not only as a response to climate risk, but as an enabler of security, stability, and economic prosperity in a complex geopolitical context. This story elevates the role of forests, nature, and Indigenous and traditional knowledge as central to resilience. The climate–nature linkage becomes explicit, with Indigenous Peoples and local communities playing a more prominent role than at any previous COP. An ambitious adaptation finance package should support this recognition, anchored both inside and outside the negotiations. From the World Leaders Summit to the CMA decisions, COP30 can show that adaptation finance is predictable, equitable, and transformational. COP30 recognizes that adaptation and mitigation reinforce each other. After COP30, climate leadership and ambition is seen to be dependent on adaptation as much as it is on mitigation efforts. Specific outcomes:Negotiations
The 100-indicator package is adopted at COP30, with balanced coverage of means of implementation (MOI) and cross-cutting issues, including those affecting people of African descent and local communities, with disaggregated data for the most affected groups.
Ensuring the GGA establishes linkages with the pillars of finance and transparency under the Paris Agreement, including the GST, BTRs, NCQG, Baku to Belém Roadmap, and the successor of the Glasgow Climate Pact
Adopting a decision on NAPs that supports a decisive shift towards adaptation action and finance that transforms and strengthens local implementation capacities. The decision also supports the integration of gender and racial perspectives and to ensure inclusive, and equitable climate action.
Providing clear guidance on the Baku Adaptation Roadmap (BAR) so it provides a clear structure for considering adaptation in an integrated manner within the UN climate negotiations and a platform for accelerating adaptation action.
Finance
Establishing a collective target to at least triple the provision of international adaptation finance by 2030, as a successor to the expiring ‘doubling’ urge from the Glasgow Climate Pact.
Securing future adaptation finance commitments from developed countries as part of new climate finance pledges from those with commitments that have already or are about to expire;
Making finance for adaptation a major feature within an ambitious but balanced Baku to Belém Roadmap, and securing a hook in a decision for future discussion on its implementation;
Ensuring adaptation is a core component of agreed future work under the CMA on implementing Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement;
Initiating the Adaptation Fund’s legal transition to only serve the Paris Agreement and be ready to receive shares of proceeds from Article 6.4 transactions. Additional pledges are also secured to signal continued support and enable consistent operations.
Action Agenda
Existing adaptation finance initiatives demonstrate that effective engagement of private sector, subnational, and philanthropic actors is possible, advancing both ambition and impact, and scaling an increasing number of practical solutions to feed into the 2nd Global Stocktake (GST2). Specific concrete commitments are made regarding strengthening country platforms and enhancing direct access funding to Indigenous Peoples funds and organisations.
The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) receives political support and initial financial commitments that provide credibility and enable testing and refinement of the proposal, paving the way for the mechanism to achieve the initial contributions of USD 125 billion to strengthen the implementation of forest conservation policies around the Global South.
Mitigation and Energy: resilience of the transition
February 2025 was the deadline for countries to submit new, ambitious NDCs aligned with keeping global warming below 1.5°C. But this did not happen: first came delays, then underwhelming targets.
COP30 should acknowledge this ambition gap head-on, while reaffirming that the Paris “ratchet” mechanism remains alive. The story here is that mitigation leadership endures — both politically and in the real economy — and that COP30 helps close the gap between what is pledged and what is possible.
Leaders from the G20 and other major economies should acknowledge their responsibility and reaffirm their commitment to the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement during the World Leaders Summit, with ministers reiterating that commitment throughout COP30’s high-level segments.
At the Leaders Summit, G20 members and other advanced economies reaffirm their political commitment to the Paris mitigation goals, with Ministers echoing this resolve in high-level segments.
Through the Action Agenda, progress by the private sector, subnational governments, civil society, and philanthropy showcases that mitigation ambition is advancing faster in the real economy than in official NDCs. Recognising this dynamism makes the next round of NDCs stronger and more credible.
COP30 can also place the energy transition at the centre of the global response, reinforcing commitment to phasing out fossil fuels and mobilising finance for just transitions. Negotiations should unlock processes that support implementation, including through just transitions and realignment of global finance flows (Article 2.1(c)). Parties must also recognize that accelerating the energy transition can reduce the need for unilateral and fragmented trade measures.
SPECIFIC OUTCOMES
Negotiations
A COP30 decision follows up on the Leaders Summit by squarely recognising the NDC ambition gap, the possibility of closing it by catching up with the ambition and progress in the real economy, and reaffirming political commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees by the end of this century.
Agreement is reached within the UAE Dialogue on modalities and scope for following up on implementation of the GST outcomes. This enables enhanced implementation across all pillars of the Paris Agreement as well as just, orderly and equitable pathways towards the phase-out of fossil fuels and its subsidies reform.
The Just Transition Work Programme articulates a roadmap, including modalities and an institutional arrangement, for ensuring a just and inclusive energy transition. This work supports a common understanding of a just transition and equity in diverse socio-economic contexts so that energy poverty and costs are addressed alongside workforce issues.
The B2B roadmap reinforces the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies, recognizing that such subsidies undermine climate ambition, distort energy markets and delay the deployment of clean energy solutions. This framing supports a broader shift in multilateral negotiations toward realigning public and private finance with just transition pathways, particularly in developing countries.
The decision on Article 2.1c sets a path to developing a framework that will assist in monitoring progress towards aligning global finance flows with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. This gives a concrete sense of execution to the global economic transformation, signaling to financial institutions and government planning bodies that structural shifts toward decarbonization and resilience are now the new normal.
Action Agenda
Existing mitigation and energy transition initiatives report progress and increased levels of ambition, enhancing transparency, planning and accountability framework as a means to incentivize continuous enhancement of goals in line with 1.5°C pathways.
Launch a Public-Private Coalition to Peak Fossil Fuel Demand Before 2030, bringing together governments, industry leaders, investors, and civil society to coordinate actions, share best practices, and align investment flows with a rapid decline in fossil fuel use.
Position biofuel diplomacy as a complementary pathway for the core challenge of the energy transition: the phase-out of fossil fuels. Commit to ensuring that the global pledge to quadruple biofuel production serves as a genuinely low-emission solution for hard-to-abate sectors, with strict safeguards for land-use conversion, biodiversity and human rights.
Leaders Summit
Adopt a Leaders’ Declaration on a roadmap for the phase-out of fossil fuels, reaffirming collective commitment to a just, orderly and equitable energy transition in response to the escalating climate emergency. The declaration should underscore the scientific evidence that the world has already crossed critical tipping points and highlight the urgent need to close the ambition gap to keep 1.5°C within reach, setting a shared vision for phasing out fossil fuels, accelerating clean energy deployment and mobilizing finance for a resilient, low-carbon global economy.
Reform: resilience of the multilateral process
The third pillar of the Talanoa story is the resilience of the multilateral climate regime itself.
As the climate emergency worsens, doubts about the Paris Agreement’s relevance have grown — amid a wider retreat from multilateralism. COP30 can respond to this moment by demonstrating reform from within: treating “implementation” as more than a slogan, and coordinating across processes to deliver results.
This reform story links climate governance to the broader reform of international financial architecture, and to synergies with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). It also acknowledges global economic tensions, including risks from unilateral trade measures, positioning COP30 as a space for constructive dialogue.
SPECIFIC OUTCOMES
Negotiations
CMA agrees future work on implementing Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement that provides a space for considering linkages with international financial architecture reform.
COP30 gives significant political attention to the transparency processes as part of a pivot towards implementation. The BTR synthesis report is spotlighted and Brazil dedicates significant time and Ministerial-level representation to the Facilitative Multilateral Consideration of Process (FMCP).
Parties agree on concrete steps to support integration of climate and biodiversity regimes through linkages with the CBD.
Action Agenda
COP30 consolidates the Action Agenda with more attention to results, scaling existing initiatives, and establishing enhanced processes for tracking progress
New processes established by the COP30 Presidency to accelerate implementation are secured for the future with institutional homes or forward work plans, including the Global Mutirão and Circle of Finance Ministers.
WHY THIS STORY MATTERS
The success of Belém will not be measured only by what is negotiated, but by what becomes possible because of it: a regime more connected to people’s realities, a global economy better aligned with the 1.5°C goal, and a multilateral system more capable of delivering concrete results. COP30 can mark the beginning of a new phase in global climate cooperation: one where adaptation, mitigation, and institutional reform advance together. This is the story Brazil can help the world tell: a story of resilience.
Adaptation at the center, renewed commitment to the Paris Agreement, and evolution of multilateralism. Here’s what must be part of the COP30 outcomes, according to Talanoa.
