Values in Gt CO2e (GWP-100, AR5).
The 2023 update of Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, approved by the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM) and announced at the Climate Ambition Summit today, returns the country’s climate ambition to the level of the First NDC of 2015:
- Emission levels of 1.32 GtCO2e (reduction of 48%) in greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) by 2025;
- Emission levels of 1.20 GtCO2e (reduction of 53%) in GGE by 2030.
Even though the methodology has not been clarified, the comparison between the percentages stated in the speech delivered by the Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Marina Silva, at the Climate Ambition Summit, in New York, and the absolute values approved by the CIM in the week prior, indicates that Brazil’s 4th National Communication to the UNFCCC will be maintained as a reference for the target setting. Maintaining this as the baseline is correct because it follows the recommendation to use the most current data available provided by the best science available.
Baseline year | Targets | Difference in relation to NDC, 2015/2016 | Difference in relation to 2020 Update | Difference in relation to 2022 Update | ||||||
NDC | National Communication | 2005 | 2025 | 2030 | 2025 | 2030 | 2025 | 2030 | 2025 | 2030 |
Original (NDC, 2015/2016) | Close to the Second | 2.10 | 1.3 | 1.2 | ||||||
First Update (NDC, 2020) | Third | 2.84 | 1.79 | 1.62 | + 0.49 | + 0.42 | ||||
Second Update (NDC, 2022) | Fourth | 2.56 | 1.61 | 1.28 | + 0.31 | + 0.08 | -0.17 | -0.34 | ||
Third Update (NDC, 2023) | Fourth (supposed) | 2.56 | 1.32 | 1.20 | 0 (equalizes the emissions, no change of ambition) | 0 (equalizes the emissions, no change of ambition) | -0.47 | -0.42 | -0.29 | -0.08 |
*values in Gt CO2e (GWP-100, AR5).
** textually, the submitted document had only one decimal place. With two places, the value would be 1.32. If based on the Second Communication (2.19), the value would be 1.38.
***in fact calculation gives 1.33.
Conclusions and Recommendations
- The return of the Brazilian NDC to the 2015 ambition terms is welcome and is a concrete milestone in the country’s climate policy being implemented since the new government took office on January 2023.
- After the correction of the current NDC, the Government of Brazil must absolutely and definitely update the targets of its future NDC with a due increase in climate ambition, which will directly increase the country’s credibility in relation to the Paris Agreement’s progression principle.
- This involves adopting new targets that represent emission levels below 1.3 GtCO2e in 2025 and 1.2 GtCO2e in 2030, whatever the methodological decisions made by the Government of Brazil. Thereafter, successive updates shall provide for absolute reductions considering the new numbers.
- This also involves enhancing ‘how’ the NDC targets are updated: it is essential to carry out public consultations in all the next update rounds.
- Now that course correction has been done, the implementation – or “delivery” – of emission reduction results with a focus on 2025 must be a priority for this and the coming years before COP30 is hosted by Brazil.
- Additionally, the Government of Brazil must internalize the commitments already assumed internationally, such as the Declaration on Forests and the Global Methane Commitment, signed in Glasgow.
- Finally, the Government of Brazil must align the NDC’s short-term goals and national policies with the objective of climate neutrality by 2050, by working on the development of a robust and comprehensive long term strategy (LTS) to deliver a net zero and resilient economy before mid-century.
