A roundtable organized by Minister Marina Silva (Environment and Climate) on Wednesday (12), with the participation of British economist Nicholas Stern, sought to advance the proposal that COP30 establish a roadmap to reduce the planet’s main source of greenhouse gas emissions: the burning of fossil fuels. What she is seeking is an initial step, still without a defined format.

The idea of a roadmap was first presented by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the Leaders’ Summit, which preceded COP30, and repeated by him in the opening speech of the Conference in Belém. On Wednesday (12), COP President André Corrêa do Lago downplayed the issue, saying that while it is at the center of the president’s concerns, it is not an “agenda item” in Belém.

“Despite challenges and contradictions, building a roadmap will be necessary, and the first step is dialogue,” urged Ms Silva. The minister hopes at least to begin the debate during COP30. That would mean resuming what was decided two years ago at the Dubai summit, based on the first Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement: accelerating the energy transition and moving away from fossil fuels. This debate was blocked at COP29 in Baku.

Ms Silva’s move replicates what allowed progress in Baku on another controversial issue — climate finance. The figure of US$ 1.3 trillion came from a study by the same Nicholas Stern. Although developed countries only agreed to contribute US$ 300 billion toward the new global financing goal, Stern’s number was included in the final declaration as an aspiration and served as a guide for the Baku–Belém roadmap.

Stern emphasized the importance of financing when discussing the phase-out of fossil fuels, responsible for 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions. “The challenge is investment, investment, investment. Investment in the new to abandon the old,” he said. On Wednesday, Stern published an article on the London School of Economics (LSE) website with an estimate of how much a broader transition program would cost: US$ 3.2 trillion per year until 2035. This would be the amount needed to finance energy transition, climate resilience, loss and damage, nature conservation, and a just transition. The US$ 1.3 trillion global financing goal would be part of this total.

The idea of creating a roadmap was supported at the event by Arunabha Ghosh, president of India’s Council on Energy, Environment and Water, as well as by representatives from Germany — Deputy Environment Minister Jochen Flasbarth — and from the United Kingdom — Special Envoy for Climate Change Rachel Kyte.