At the UN, Lula Announces That Brazil Will Present Its NDC Later This Year, Aligned with the 1.5°C Mission

Brazil will present its climate plan by the end of 2024. The deadline was given by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during his speech at the opening of the United Nations General Assembly (UN) in New York on Tuesday (24). “Our Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will be presented this year, in line with the goal of limiting the planet’s temperature increase to one and a half degrees,” he said.

In this way, Lula indicated that the country aims to be among the first to submit its 2035 targets to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Brazil is also engaged in the so-called 1.5°C Mission, which it leads alongside the other Troika countries (United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan, chairs of COPs 28, 29, and 30). However, he stopped short of calling on other countries to join this mission. Achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires a global effort.

There was also a missed opportunity to connect the causes and consequences of the climate emergency. Lula stressed the need to find solutions now to address climate change and mentioned the disasters that devastated various regions this year, including the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, the drought in the Amazon, and the fires that destroyed 5 million hectares in the country in August. “The planet is no longer waiting to demand action from the next generation and is tired of unfulfilled climate agreements,” he said.

From a climate finance perspective, Lula drew attention to the current levels of military spending compared to the scarcity of resources for the climate agenda: “Global military spending increased for the ninth consecutive year and reached $2.4 trillion. Over $90 billion was mobilized for nuclear arsenals. These resources could have been used to fight hunger and tackle climate change.”

The president emphasized the need for financial assistance to poor countries to deal with the climate emergency, acknowledging the high levels of debt among the most vulnerable nations. He also made a strong statement against climate change deniers, highlighting that we are already suffering the consequences of a warmer era: “Denialism is succumbing to the evidence of global warming. 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in modern history.”

For the first time, Lula acknowledged the need to move away from fossil fuels. “It is time to face the slow pace of decarbonization and work towards an economy less dependent on fossil fuels,” he said. However, he avoided using the language of the Dubai Consensus, which calls for a “transition away from fossil fuels.” It’s worth noting that “less dependence” does not ensure global warming stays within safe limits as defined by scientists.

Citing COP30, which will take place in Brazil in 2025, Lula defended multilateralism as “the only path to overcoming the climate emergency.” He also highlighted the commitment to consulting indigenous and traditional communities, an important signal at a time when indigenous rights are constantly under threat. “It is no longer acceptable to think of solutions for tropical forests without listening to indigenous peoples, traditional communities, and all those who live in them. Our vision of sustainable development is based on the potential of the bioeconomy,” he said.

What Was Left Unsaid

Lula’s speech cannot be assessed only by what he said, as the left unspoken also raises important issues. The president left out the agricultural sector. Discussing climate change without addressing agriculture ignores what is Brazil’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (after land-use changes) and a sector already impacted by the consequences of global warming.

Lula mentioned deforestation but only in relation to the Amazon: “We reduced deforestation in the Amazon by 50% last year and will eradicate it by 2030.” Current trends show that this commitment must extend to all biomes, including the loss of native vegetation beyond forest formations.

A Slightly Better Speech Compared to 2023

From a climate perspective, Política por Inteiro evaluated Lula’s speech, as it does with speeches by Brazilian presidents in relevant international forums. This year, the score was slightly higher than in 2023: 22 points on a scale from +54 to -54 (70% success rate). Last year, the score was 13 points on a scale from +22 to -22 (69%). Lula acknowledges the severity of the situation that Brazil and the world are already facing but has yet to call for a transition, offering immediate actions that make mid- and long-term commitments credible.

“It is important that Brazil presented itself not as a victim but as a country that recognizes the challenge of climate change and knows it must become independent of fossil fuels. We want to see concrete commitments in this regard in the NDC. To live up to this commitment, Lula will have to signal when our transition from oil, gas, and coal will begin and end. Today, our transportation and industry are dependent, we do not have a regulated carbon market, and the National Petroleum Agency foresees an expansion of oil until 2030. He said the world needs to depend less on fossil fuels. Is that a good start? Not exactly. To keep the 1.5°C target, we need independence, meaning an immediate transition,” said Natalie Unterstell, president of the Talanoa Institute, of which Política por Inteiro is one of the initiatives.

The methodology developed by Política por Inteiro is constantly updated, dynamically addressing the evolution of political agendas and the increasing urgency of implementation.