1.32 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2025, representing a reduction of 48.4% compared to the 2005 emissions and mitigation of about 1.24 GtCO2e; and 1.20 GtCO2e in 2030, representing a reduction of 53.1% and mitigation of about 1.36 GtCO2e compared to the 2005 emissions.
The volume of emissions for the base year of 2005, as declared in the NDC, is the one indicated in Brazil’s Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC: 2.56 GtCO2e. This time, the Brazilian government explicitly stated that there is an adjustment mechanism to fix potential inconsistencies between methodological changes, targets, and mitigation ambition. In this case, the limit of absolute emissions for the years 2025 and 2030 serves as a corrector, in line with what is proposed by Política por Inteiro and the Talanoa Institute since the first NDC update in 2020.
With this communication, the country resumes the ambition pointed out in terms of absolute emission values presented to the world in 2015.
Besides the targets for 2025 and 2030, Brazil confirmed its commitment to climate neutrality – zero net emissions – by 2050. However, the government has not yet presented a long-term strategy to align intermediate targets with the long-term goal.
In terms of policies, the NDC submitted by Brazil to the UNFCCC includes the commitment to zero deforestation by 2030, as indicated in the PPCDAM and in line with the Glasgow Forest Declaration, which the country has signed. There was no similar commitment to the Global Methane Pledge, also signed by the government in Glasgow, in 2021.
The Brazilian government also signaled that, according to Articles 4 and 14 of the Paris Agreement and decision 6/CMA.3, Brazil will present its Second NDC in 2025, informed by the 2023 Global Stocktake (GST).
It is paramount that the government improves the planning of the NDC, ensuring public consultations and citizen participation, in light of the constitutional principles and current international treaties.
Now that the course correction has been effected, the implementation – or ‘delivery’ – of the emission reduction results aiming for 2025 and 2030 must be a priority for this and the coming years, before COP30 in Brazil.
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Background: Brazil's NDC updates
The graph above illustrates the evolution of Brazil’s emissions targets since the initial submission of its Nationally Determined Contribution (iNDC) to the UNFCCC in 2015. The review carried out on November 3, 2023 represents the third update of the NDC. The 2015 iNDC was based on data from Brazil’s Second National Communication to the Convention on Climate Change, estimating total 2005 emissions at 2.10 GtCO2 e. In the first update, there was a transition to the values of the Third National Communication, which reported 2005 emissions as 2.84 GtCO2e. The second and third updates adopted the figures from the Fourth National Communication, using the most recent inventory which adjusted 2005 emissions to 2.56 GtCO2e.